Politics in a vacuum

In its latest survey, Pulse Asia shows on the statistical chart just who the top 4 will be in the presidential race. Correctly interpreted, the data simply mean that an administration candidate gets 20% while an opposition gets all of 80%. Problem however is, the 80% will have to be broken down into the number of opposition candidates running. Thus, it makes sense for the opposition to field just one candidate against whom GMA anoints and the curse called – “kiss of death”. Truly, the opposition must put their acts together if it wishes to at least enjoy a 40-point advantage than repeat the same mistake twice. A fragmented opposition shall be a useless opposition – it operates in a vacuum.

Now, the latest SWS survey marks radical drop in the net satisfaction ratings of GMA as follows – from a -14 in December to -33 in February and from -22 in December to -40 in February for Visayas and Mindanao, respectively. What aggravates this quantum fall is the sad fact that classes D and E largely registered these plummeting satisfaction ratings. This simply means that across all social classes – public perception of an extremely dissatisfied population has scientific basis. It was a turn around from where there used to be stronger backing for GMA. As for Luzon, it was -24 from -23 that it is 3 months earlier or an almost sustained but still chronically negative rating. All told, it seems to take only a shameless president to hold on to power under this cast big shadow of doubt on her legitimacy as in her continued stay to power.

Furthermore, it is interesting to note that in both urban and rural areas, the negative ratings are almost the same with urban net rating a -32 and a rural net rating a -33. What appears to be some saving grace is an improved rating, albeit still within the negative range, from the A,B,C classes while worsening in the rest or, the D & E. All said, it shall take a miracle to reverse the configuration as in no time in history has it been reversed even when the economy at one point earned increase in GNP or GDP.

Perhaps, a -32 net satisfaction rating will usher badly for whom GMA anoints to succeed her after 2010. And no amount of spin can convince people that these data do not reflect GMA’s actual performance as president. Sometimes, we tend to think that GMA’s PR handlers no longer consult for much needed adult supervision before they have to open their mouths in defense of their most favored patron – the president. And this happens because they generally are not conversant with the goings on in this country as well being out of touch with the very government to which they apply all sorts of cosmetic change or epidermal make-over.

Thus, we have two weights on the scale. Either side of the political fence ought to check their political calculus and failure to calibrate more accurately would likewise reduce the whole awesome electoral exercise into one of utter futility. As presidential aspirants prepare themselves for the 2010 election, each political camp starts to build various scenarios intended to weaken the opponent and strengthen their own stronghold. In the end, this political tug of war would exact toll even before the votes are in – some 14 months more to go.

The problem then is – how good a strong bet from the opposition could have been chosen as the lone standard bearer? Fielding more than one of their own will be the most illogical thing to experiment on. There is only one future to save and the sooner indeed they can have a meeting of the minds, the better for their country and the cause they really fight for, if any.

This brings me to the point I now wish to drive at. If the presidential wannabes from the broad opposition cannot decide among themselves who the lone opposition to field against a probably strong administration candidate, then GMA has reason to rejoice as she would have laid the groundwork for post-presidency immunity, call it that. She will frustrate every legal attempt for her to get jailed or made to answer for what might have been essentially were impeachable offenses.

Now that the COMELEC has already made announcement that anyone can now file his certificate of candidacy, the voting populace can keep tabs on who are finally running what with today’s Ping Lacson’s political ad shown on TV. Is Ping gunning for the presidency, this despite the double murder case of Bubby Dacer and Orbito is resurrected back with a professed new affidavit kept in a vault by no less than the (in)justice secretary?

The 2010 election ought to bring about sea change. If the opposition fails to win for promoting only their vested or selfish interests, then it is their problem. Only the people can save themselves in the end. There will be no use making choices from a field of one administration candidate against five or more opposition clowns. For instance, one cannot arrive at a wise choice if the ballot lists as presidential candidates the following names – Noli (administration), Ping (opposition), Chiz (opposition), Loren (opposition), Villar (opposition), Roxas (opposition), Estrada (opposition).

Add to that the possibility of more presidential wannabes than few joining the fray in the mad scramble to become the new Philippine president. If we see Gordon, Bro. Mike Velarde, Binay, Bayani Fernando, Genuino, Teodoro, and a few more – then we can see how the problem magnifies. What in the end is the goal for running? Maybe something is wrong somewhere and it is time to come up with a prognosis on what is the matter with our collective psyche. Have we a very demented culture? Are we too tribalistic? Are we all clowns, no exception? Just what the hell are we as a people?