The glimpses of 2002
THE FIRST FEW months of the year have historically been crucial
periods for Filipinos. The collective psyche, temporarily
lulled by the balmy if noisy holiday season, is suddenly jolted
into a reality check as Filipinos settle back to normal life
in the new year.
The Arroyo administration was born in the midst of near-chaos
at about this time last year, when Filipinos awoke from the
season of forgiveness into five days of outrage as they witnessed
a mockery of justice in the Estrada impeachment proceedings.
Likewise, it was also at about this time 16 years ago when
popular sentiment simmered at the massive election fraud,
culminating in the First Edsa Revolution which toppled the
Marcos dictatorship and catapulted the yellow-clad Corazon
Aquino to the helm in February 1986.
This year opened with a foreboding shot that downed Army Capt.
Alexander Baron Cervantes, self-styled Young Officers Union
(YOU) spokesman, whose cold-blooded murder on New Year's eve
opened a Pandora's box of intrigues.
As it is, the long, difficult year has already cast a pall
on the coming year. Admittedly, at no other time in the post-war
era has the economy hobbled so badly and the polity split
so acrimoniously.
What's in store for Filipinos in the Year 2002? If we use
the past as our guidepost, not much, says our crystal ball,
which gives us glimpses of the same news-making faces we saw
last year. Will Arroyo break the slow-changing cycle of Philippine
history, fulfill the revolutionary spurts that put her to
power by giving them an impetus for lasting change? Or will
she just sit out her presidency, getting things running and
restraining disorder but not transforming history?
These are the issues that will define the Arroyo administration
in the year 2002.
Leadership
The renewed buzz about coups exposes the perceived weakness
of Arroyo's leadership. To be fair, she took over the government
at possibly one of the worst times when the country is buffeted
by banditry and rebellion in the Muslim South, the political
backlash of the Estrada prosecution, a nose-diving world economy,
and widespread criminality in society.
These problems are interrelated, and probably reinforce one
another. As such, they call for decisive action. But Arroyo
is obviously torn between her democratic ideals and the use
of force. The confirmation of Defense Secretary Angelo Reyes
and Armed Forces Chief of Staff Diosmedio Villanueva, who
also worked for her ousted predecessor, shows her intention
to de-politicize the uniformed establishment. But her overriding
drive to "professionalize" the military and police
seems like a feeble move in the face of mounting threat to
stability and security.
It was perhaps in this context that Arroyo expressed frustration
at the prevailing "macho" culture in Philippine
politics, aside from the reference to former President Fidel
Ramos' broad hints that he was interested in the 2004 presidential
race. Unless Arroyo shows toughness, not only in terms of
verbal acerbity, but in the decisions she makes, she will
continue to fend off rumored and real takeovers of her seat.
Peace and Order
Arroyo has painted the country's security problem as one
of perception rather than reality. By saying this, she is
insinuating that that the media is responsible for this perception.
The fact remains that the country has one of the highest incidences
of kidnapping in the world. As of press time, the Abu Sayyaf
still holds two Americans hostages. Retired, fired or disgruntled
uniformed men have been known to be behind the spate of high-stakes
crimes, including kidnap for ransom, drug trafficking and
smuggling.
The Philippine police is still in limbo as to the perpetrators
of two high-profile murders committed within two months of
each other: that of movie actress Nida Blanca and Alexander
Baron Cervantes. While the two incidents are unrelated, they
point to a festering criminality in society.
Investigative Justice
The country's justice system is in full investigation mode
now that Misuari has been deported back to the country, joining
Estrada and son. This is not to mention the on-going Senate
probe on Panfilo Lacson, whose name is dragged anew in the
Cervantes murder case as one of the alleged instigators of
a plot to topple the Arroyo government, eyed as the likeliest
motive for the crime. The problem is that the trial of these
people cannot be cloistered in the courtroom, but one that
the public will be riveted to. Misuari's supporters and enemies
alike are jockeying to have him exiled to a third country
in order to avert any political backlash. Already, an armed
encounter between his supporters and the military has been
reported just a day after his arrival. The simultaneous high-profile
trial of Estrada and Misuari, not to mention the probe of
Lacson, will certainly create tides in the already turbulent
political waters.
Economy
The biggest challenge for the economist Chief Executive is
in the area of her expertise, before which she looks miserably
inept. And for reasons largely beyond her control: the world
economy is in a downward spiral in the aftermath of the Sep.
11 terrorist attack. Already, remittances from overseas foreign
workers (or "investors," as she ventured to flatter
them) are slipping dramatically, foreseeably erasing what
has remained black ink in the country's balance of payments
account. Wooing them with a grant of voting rights, as some
of her henchmen are already hyping, will not change the situation
much unless the world economy picks up within the year, which
is unlikely.*
Year 2002 looks set to show that history moves ever so slowly
in the Philippines, as the same faces tackle the same age-old
problems or re-invent slightly new twists in the worn storyline
of its political life. Photos at right show President Gloria
Arroyo, former President Fidel Ramos and renegade ARMM Governor
Nur Misuari.
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